Valid 151200Z – 161200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN
TEXAS…EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHERN
ALABAMA…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma,
western Arkansas and northeast Texas. Isolated strong to locally
severe storms are also possible across the Deep South.
An upper-level trough will progress eastward out of the northern
Plains and amplify across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
At the surface, a cold front will surge southward into the southern
Plains, reaching the Red River by late afternoon.
…Southeast Oklahoma and north Texas…
Dewpoints ahead of the surging cold front are expected to reach the
upper 60s F to low 70s F, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the
afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level flow in response to the
amplifying trough to the north will foster deep-layer shear
supporting organized storms and perhaps a supercell or two. Large
hail will be possible given sufficient mid-level lapse rates and
long hodographs. While low-level flow/shear is not expected to be
overly strong, a brief window will exist for a tornado with any
initial supercell development. Strong linear forcing from the
advancing front will likely cause some upscale growth with isolated
strong/severe wind gusts becoming the main threat.
…Gulf Coast Vicinity…
A weak warm advection regime along a quasi-stationary boundary will
lead to scattered thunderstorm development from southern MS/AL into
portions of the FL Panhandle and adjacent southwestern GA. Ample
cloud cover is likely which will limit daytime heating across much
of the region. Adequate low/mid-level flow is forecast such that
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with any of the
stronger storms, despite very poor lapse rates within the column.