South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551…

Valid 051024Z – 051200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551

SUMMARY…Thunderstorms continue within severe thunderstorm watch
551, albeit mostly at sub-severe levels. However, a recent uptick in
thunderstorm organization and intensity has occurred across far
southeast North Dakota. If this activity persists a new watch may be
required downstream.

DISCUSSION…This morning’s west-east oriented linear mesoscale
convective system (MCS) across North Dakota is weakening rapidly
across most of North Dakota as convective activity becomes
increasingly cutoff from best theta-e airmass. One exception to this
is across far southeast North Dakota, where a cluster of
thunderstorms near Ransom County has moved south of earlier elevated
thunderstorms and into a more thermodynamically favorable
environment (most-unstable CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg). One
negative factor is this complex is outpacing the better deep-layer
shear, and is currently located on the leading edge of deep-layer
shear in excess of 25 knots. Convective trends will be monitored
this morning and if it appears this complex will turn the corner
into a more robust severe threat, a new watch may become necessary
across portions of the area.

..Marsh.. 08/05/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 46269989 46629986 46659843 47219839 47239687 47139681
47139620 46649615 46649628 46019624 46009656 45929656
45939900 46269904 46269989

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