Valid 010100Z – 011200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
Severe threat will increase across the Florida Keys, and portions of
south Florida later this evening. Damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado can be expected.
Long-lived band of convection is progressing east across the Gulf
Basin toward south Florida. Within a larger complex of storms, a
well-defined bow-type structure is surging ahead of the main line at
roughly 35kt. Current speed/movement suggests the southern influence
of this bow will approach the Keys between 0130-02z, then into the
southern Peninsula region around 03z. 00z sounding from KEY is
quite supportive of robust convection, with ample deep-layer shear
and SBCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg. For these reasons, will
maintain 15% severe probs for wind, and 5% for tornadoes as this
complex of storms will likely persist for at least the next 5 hours.