Valid 010100Z – 011200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
Severe threat will increase across the Florida Keys, and portions of
south Florida later this evening. Damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado can be expected.
Long-lived band of convection is progressing east across the Gulf
Basin toward south Florida. Within a larger complex of storms, a
well-defined bow-type structure is surging ahead of the main line at
roughly 35kt. Current speed/movement suggests the southern influence
of this bow will approach the Keys between 0130-02z, then into the
southern Peninsula region around 03z. 00z sounding from KEY is
quite supportive of robust convection, with ample deep-layer shear
and SBCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg. For these reasons, will
maintain 15% severe probs for wind, and 5% for hail as this complex
of storms will likely persist for at least the next 5 hours.