Valid 041300Z – 051200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A cold front will move steadily southeast across the peninsula
through this evening. With the primary corridor of large-scale
forcing for ascent expected to remain north of FL, relatively warm
600-500 mb temperatures will be maintained, supporting poor
mid-level lapse rates (well sampled by the 12Z Tampa and Miami
soundings). This may prove hostile to deep convection being
sustained over land amid increasingly veered low-level winds.
However, a few deeper convective elements should produce isolated
flashes along the west-central coast this morning and perhaps
farther inland this afternoon.
…Coastal Pacific Northwest…
Onshore flow, combined with steep 0-5 km lapse rates, will remain
favorable for scattered offshore showers that should spread toward
the coast. Much of this activity will remain shallow, but a few
lightning flashes are possible through this evening.