Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 271630Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER
DARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may affect the High Plains
of west Texas and eastern New Mexico this evening and tonight.

…NM/TX…
No changes have been made to the ongoing MRGL risk area. A large
upper trough over AZ will continue to progress eastward, with strong
southwesterly flow aloft across west TX and eastern NM. A surface
warm front is lifting northward across the region resulting in slow
airmass destabilization despite abundant clouds, with forecast
evening MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Most 12z CAM solutions show
a few strong storms tracking across the MRGL risk area later today –
mainly after dark. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer
shear for rotating updrafts and some risk of hail or even a brief
tornado.

..Hart/Cook.. 12/27/2019

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