Valid 230100Z – 231200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight from the lower
Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant severe probs.
Southern High Plains short-wave trough will eject east overnight as
500mb speed max translates into the Arklatex. Large-scale ascent
ahead of this feature should maintain some convective threat near a
frontal zone as it progresses across the Mid-South into the central
Gulf States. Latest radar/lightning data suggests the most active
portion of the boundary is along the I-20 corridor from northern LA
into MS. However, 00z soundings for this region suggest convection
is slightly elevated and not particularly buoyant. With poor lapse
rates noted across lower latitudes, it appears the threat for
organized severe is not that great. As a result, MRGL Risk will be
dropped for the lower MS Valley.