Valid 182000Z – 191200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
The threat exists for a tornado or two, along with isolated
thunderstorm gusts near severe levels, tonight across parts of the
Primary change to previous outlook has been to expand the MRGL risk
farther east into the central FL peninsula for the possibility of a
supercell or two developing along the northward-advancing warm
front, posing a risk for a brief tornado.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is expected to strengthen some as it
moves northeastward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico through
tonight, with the system still expected to become a tropical or
subtropical storm later today. Reference NHC for the latest details
regarding watches, warnings, and track/intensity forecasts for this
As this system/low pressure gradually strengthens, relatively
dry/continental trajectories over the Southeast will begin to abate.
On the east/northeast periphery of the strengthening system,
maritime tropical air mass will be confined to the offshore waters
and southern half of Florida Peninsula this afternoon into evening
along/south of a warm front, although low-level winds will initially
be weak over inland areas. Accordingly, the primary location for any
transient supercell/related tornado threat through late
afternoon/early evening should be relegated to the offshore waters
off the west-central Peninsula toward immediate coastal areas near
the warm front.
As the system strengthens and hodographs enlarge, the overall
supercell potential, including the risk for a couple of tornadoes,
should increase and spread/expand northward tonight in tandem with
the northward advance of the warm front, with such a risk spreading
from the west-central Florida Peninsula northward into the Big
Bend/Nature Coast by late tonight and early Saturday.