Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061300Z – 071200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and marginally
severe wind gusts are possible from northeast Texas to the Tennessee
Valley mainly this afternoon and early evening.

…Synopsis…
Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the central CONUS
through tonight. This will include a deepening cyclone over northern
Ontario and the Hudson Bay vicinity, while a secondary shortwave
trough sweeps east-southeastward across the central
Plains toward the Ozarks/middle Mississippi Valley. This will
reinforce a southeastward-advancing cold front across Texas/ArkLaTex
and the lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley.

…ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley…
A warm/moist boundary layer will persist along/ahead of the
southeast-moving front today. Initially, scattered elevated
showers/thunderstorms are ongoing mainly from northeast Oklahoma
eastward along the Arkansas/Missouri border vicinity. Although
mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, heating of the
pre-frontal air mass will lead to moderate destabilization this
afternoon across far east/southeast Oklahoma and the broader
ArkLaTex region, and to some extent across the Tennessee Valley,
although lingering early-day cloud cover/precipitation may be
detrimental to more appreciable destabilization in this region.

Stronger flow aloft is progged to remain generally to the cool side
of the front, and as such, only modest warm-sector shear is
expected. This should tend to limit the overall severe
risk. However, a few of the stronger storms, particularly across far
east/southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas, could pose a severe
hail and/or locally damaging wind risk. Such potential should be
maximized during the afternoon/early evening, but may
linger locally into the overnight hours, as convective coverage
continues to increase with the approach of the upstream upper
system.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 10/06/2019

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.