Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 281200Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK
INTO WESTERN MO…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday
from parts of the southern and central Plains to parts of New York
into the Ohio Valley. A somewhat greater chance for severe weather
may exist Saturday afternoon across portions of central/eastern
Kansas into far western Missouri.

…Central/Southern Plains…

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over the southern Rockies progressing east-northeast in line
with 00z model guidance. While large-scale heights are actually
forecast to rise ahead of this short wave, 500mb temperatures should
cool a few degrees as the trough ejects into eastern KS and
deamplifies by 29/00z. Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored
over the Gulf States through the period and this will ensure the
aforementioned short wave lifts decidedly poleward over the next
36hrs. Significant convection is currently ongoing at 0530z along a
frontal zone from eastern KS into northern IN. This boundary is
expected to remain nearly stationary through the period. Latest
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the TX South Plains into extreme south-central KS by afternoon. As a
result, surface readings should approach convective temperatures by
21z which times favorably with the approaching trough. As a result,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the wind shift
by late afternoon, especially from northern OK into western MO.
Hail/wind are the primary risks with this diurnally enhanced
convection.

…Upper OH Valley/NY…

Surface front is forecast to settle southeast across the lower Great
Lakes region into western NY – northwest PA – central OH by 18z.
Modest surface-6km shear will be present across this region along
southern fringe of ON/QC short wave trough. While forecast buoyancy
is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, isolated
surface-based convection should develop near the front by 20z, then
propagate southeast as the front settles across the OH Valley by
early evening. Gusty winds are the primary threat with this
activity.

..Darrow/Cook.. 09/28/2019

$$

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