Valid 071630Z – 081200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND NEAR THE NORTHERN CASCADES…
Isolated severe wind and hail are possible today from thunderstorms
over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades.
A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today
across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of
eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level
winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains,
limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant
surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of
multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms
capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level
winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will
maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes.
A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today.
Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of
scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the
Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the
strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours
this afternoon and evening.