Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 171630Z – 181200Z


Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts are expected through
tonight from southwest to north-central Texas. A couple tornadoes
are also possible across western North Texas, mainly late afternoon
to early evening.

…Southern High Plains…
Ongoing cluster of thunderstorms with a history of small to
marginally severe hail should persist eastward along and north of a
west/east-oriented warm front across north TX. Widespread stratus
north of the front will slow its northward progression at the
surface today. While surface heating should be gradual, as the
cluster impinges on a plume of mid 60s surface dew points emanating
from central TX through the Big Country, additional storm
development into the warm sector is possible. Low-level flow will be
modest, but sufficient veering with height near the surface front
could foster a risk for a couple tornadoes in addition to large hail
and isolated severe wind.

Farther west, additional thunderstorms may form in multiple rounds.
Isolated thunderstorms should develop in east-central NM off the
higher terrain and possibly south along the TX/NM border near the
surface trough during the mid to late afternoon. A greater
likelihood for scattered thunderstorms is anticipated during the
early evening across the Pecos Valley as large-scale ascent
increases with rapid approach of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
from the Gulf of CA. 35-45 kt effective shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail in the early
convective life-cycle. Storm-scale consolidation and upscale growth
into an eastward-progessing MCS appears probable this evening from
the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau into the Big Country with a mixed
risk of severe wind and hail. The severe threat should wane during
the overnight owing to decreasing instability with eastern extent in
central TX.

..Grams/Nauslar.. 03/17/2020


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