Valid 222000Z – 231200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest.
No appreciable change is needed to the previous convective outlook.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020/
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low moving slowly eastward
into southern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture and weak lift ahead
of the upper low is affecting much of the Southwest states, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region.
This pattern will persist through most of the forecast period, with
strong/severe storms unlikely.
One possible exception will be over parts of northwest and north
central AZ this afternoon and early evening. Partial clearing skies
and proximity to cold upper low will provide a slightly more
unstable air mass over this area. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest
one or two transient rotating storms will traverse this area posing
a risk of small hail. But overall, the risk of severe storms seems
too low to warrant a MRGL risk.