Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 201200Z – 211200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly Thursday morning from
the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. No
severe thunderstorms are expected.

…Upper Texas Coast through Louisiana and southern Mississippi…

Weak theta-e advection will occur above a stable surface layer from
southeast TX into LA through early morning. Latest radar imagery
already shows convection, including a few thunderstorms, developing
over the northwest Gulf. This activity will spread inland along the
warm conveyor belt this morning. While instability will remain very
limited (200-400 J/kg) due to weak mid-level lapse rates, the
convective layer might deepen sufficiently for a few thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm potential should diminish during the afternoon as the
low-level jet gradually veers and shifts east of the corridor of
higher theta-e.

…Northern Florida…

A stationary front currently situated over central FL will lift
slowly north during the day before being overtaken by a
southeast-advancing cold front. While forcing in vicinity of this
boundary will be weak in presence of a modest capping inversion,
confidence of thunderstorm development is not particularly high,
with the best chance probably along and north of the cold front as
it advances southeast. Unidirectional westerly vertical wind
profiles with up to 50 kt effective bulk shear would support a
conditional risk for rotating updrafts. Farther south along the east
central FL coast, isolated showers and a couple of thunderstorms
will be possible, but a stronger mid-level inversion should limit
overall coverage of any thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 02/20/2020

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