Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 182000Z – 191200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early
evening across parts of the Deep South.

…20Z Update…

…Deep South…
Deep southwesterly flow aloft continues to promote widespread clouds
from east TX across the Southeast. This has limited destabilization,
although augmented ascent near the front (currently extending from
eastern KY into central TX) is still enough to produce showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Thus far, thunderstorm intensity has
remained tempered, with most storms struggling to maintain
persistently strong updrafts.

Additional storms have recently developed across southern AL, in an
area where temperatures are in the upper 70s. Like those farther
north, updrafts have struggled to persist. However, unlike the
storms farther north, the more cellular storm mode may allow for
quicker organization/strengthening.

Overall, the strong vertical shear still supports a low probability
for a rotating storm capable of locally damaging wind gusts and/or a
brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 02/18/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020/

…Deep South…
A cold front continues to settle southeastward across Tennessee,
southern Arkansas, far northern Mississippi with some augmentation
by existing convection, which is prevalent not only along/behind the
front, but also within the warm sector where cloud cover remains
fairly extensive. These clouds will tend to hinder overall
heating/destabilization as the boundary layer otherwise gradually
moistens.

While heavy rainfall will likely be the most prominent hazard today
and tonight, some potential exists for severe storms this afternoon
through early evening. Where modest but adequate destabilization
occurs, deepening/intensifying convection in the presence of long
hodographs (40-55 kt effective shear) with modest low-level
curvature could yield sustained/weakly rotating updrafts this
afternoon. Adequate SRH may exist across northern/central portions
of Mississippi/Alabama to yield a brief tornado. Small to marginally
severe hail will also be possible, but locally damaging wind gusts
would be more probable.

$$

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