Areas affected…eastern Colorado…far western Kansas…portions of
the OK/TX panhandles…and far northeastern New Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 231955Z – 232145Z
CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated convection is beginning to develop across the far
western portions of the discussion area against higher terrain.
These storms should grow upscale over the next couple hours or so,
possibly requiring a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION…Latest satellite imagery and objective analyses suggest
a gradual increase in towering cumulus against higher terrain of
central/south-central Colorado and adjacent areas of New Mexico
within a weak upslope regime and easterly/southeasterly surface
winds. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s in
most areas, which has increased surface-based CAPE values into the
2000-3000 J/kg range amidst steep low- and mid-level lapse rates.
Observational trends and model guidance suggest that convection will
continue to expand with time, and some upscale growth into linear
segments is expected given weak low-level shear and maturing cold
pools. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the
primary threats with this activity.
Convective trends are being monitored, and a WW issuance may be
needed around or before 21Z.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 37710438 38800475 39610493 40100504 40690483 40990430
40980279 40480220 39360184 39020168 37880142 36610137
35920208 35980322 36340403 36910426 37710438