South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…western/central South Dakota

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 042251Z – 050045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated severe wind gusts are possible associated with
shallow convection across western and central South Dakota this
evening.

DISCUSSION…An upper-level shortwave trough is beginning to dig and
deepen southeast across the northern Plains with an associated
surface low in southeast Saskatchewan. A cold front is extending
south-southwest from the surface low draping across western North
Dakota into northwest South Dakota and along the Montana/Wyoming
border. Along and ahead of the cold front shallow convection has
developed with sporadic lightning, but has produced severe wind
gusts including in Buffalo, SD. This broken line of convection will
continue moving southeastward through western/central South Dakota.
Strong deep-layer flow combined with this shallow convection could
continue to produce isolated severe gusts. The eastern extent will
be limited by snow cover and lower theta-e air, although warmer
temperatures and overspreading instability aloft could push the line
into south-central South Dakota in the next couple of hours.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 03/04/2020

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…ABR…BIS…UNR…

LAT…LON 43420049 43530121 43800237 44210341 44650409 45170207
45410153 45670114 46040073 45900016 45479988 44959946
44399937 43899946 43450001 43420049

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