South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…North-central Nebraska/south-central South Dakota

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 292232Z – 292330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…An isolated severe storm or two could materialize across
north-central Nebraska into far south-central South Dakota through
early evening.

DISCUSSION…Recent visible satellite imagery augmented by regional
radar data shows several attempts at convective development across
the region, including north-central Nebraska between the
O’Neill/Ord/Broken Bow areas, as well as farther northwest along the
South Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity near Valentine. This
development is focused near a warm front that extends
northwest/southeast across the region. The nearby warm-sector air
mass is relatively moist with negligible boundary layer inhibition
as temperatures have risen into the middle 80s across north-central
Nebraska.

While there remains short-term uncertainty regarding the likelihood
and coverage of mature/rooted thunderstorms, instability
characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in conjunction with wind
profiles that are strong/veering with height (40 kt effective
shear) suggests there is least a conditional concern for
near-surface-based supercellular development and their related risks
near the warm front.

..Guyer.. 09/29/2019

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…FSD…GID…LBF…UNR…

LAT…LON 42290017 42800094 43500106 43620049 43299962 42989916
42579872 42079853 41699893 42290017

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