South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Southeast ND…West-Central MN…Far Northeast SD

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 022034Z – 022200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…Strengthening MCS across central SD is expected to persist
downstream in southeast ND, west-central MN, and far northeast SD. A
downstream watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION…Current storm motion takes the ongoing MCS across
central ND to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 before 22Z.
Convective inhibition currently remains in place over the downstream
environment across southeast ND, west-central MN, and far
northeastern SD. However, increasing moisture advection and diurnal
heating will contribute to an erosion of at least some of this
inhibition. In addition to the weakening convective inhibition and
building instability, the strong warm-air advection is expected to
persist. All of these factors combined with the organized character
of the ongoing MCS suggest the severe threat will continue
downstream. Some acceleration of the MCS is also possible along with
higher probability for strong wind gusts at the surface. A
downstream watch will likely be needed to cover the resulting severe
weather threat.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/02/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 47309893 47729790 46999509 45629493 45419668 46019960

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