South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Central and Southern South Dakota

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 020456Z – 020600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…A severe threat will likely continue to develop across
parts of central and southern South Dakota over the next few hours.
Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather
watch issuance seems unlikely across the region but the area will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION…The latest radar imagery shows an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm developing int west-central South Dakota.
According to RAP analysis, this storm is located along the northern
edge of a pocket of moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the storm is being aided
by increased warm advection. As low-level flow continues to
increase, addition convective development will be possible. The
instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on the
Rapid City WSR-88D VWP will be favorable for storm rotation and
possibly isolated large hail. A few strong wind gusts may also

..Broyles.. 09/02/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 43380087 43379961 43599903 44109864 44629901 44900079
44760189 44490237 43840236 43530195 43380087

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