South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…southeast South Dakota…southwest
Minnesota…northwest Iowa

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 583…

Valid 160048Z – 160245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 583

SUMMARY…Severe wind/hail remain possible with a line of storms in
southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. A local watch
extension may be necessary.

DISCUSSION…A line of storms continues moving east-southeast across
eastern South Dakota and now into southwest Minnesota. The northern
portion of the line has weakened as it encountered weaker
instability. However, the southern portion of the line still has
potential for severe hail/wind with better access to
instability/shear (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear
of 50-55 knots per mesoanalysis). Recent near severe gusts have been
reported with 43 knots at Madison, SD and 1.5 inch hail was also
reported near Madison. The southern portion of the line is showing
potential to extend farther south with a cell now developing just
west of Sioux Falls. These storms are moving out of the watch and a
local extension is possible across portions of southwest Minnesota,
southeast South Dakota, and northwest Iowa.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/16/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 43579726 44199666 44539636 44459584 43949558 43279562
42929582 42759612 42829660 42929689 43059743 43309739

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