Areas affected…eastern Wyoming…southwest South Dakota and
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 150456Z – 150630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Storms may continue to pose a risk for large hail and
locally strong to damaging gusts into the early morning hours.
Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.
DISCUSSION…Severe storms continue over northeast WY and western
SD. Several CAM solutions maintain storms into the morning hours
from southwest SD into western NE. The strongest forcing for ascent
appears to remain in MT in association with a progressive shortwave
trough. The surface layer has stabilized, but convective inhibition
for parcels lifted from above the surface remains relatively weak.
While larger-scale forcing appears rather nebulous and subtle, trend
has been for storms to increase in coverage, and activity may
continue southeast along the instability gradient. MUCAPE from
1500-2000 J/kg with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and effective
shear from 40-45 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation and a threat
for large hail.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 43490476 44080466 44200274 43260196 42100185 41690337