Areas affected…Portions of the Northern High Plains
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 032022Z – 032245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Initial thunderstorm development is underway over the
higher terrain and along/near the surface pressure trough across the
northern High Plains. Storms will be capable of producing severe
hail and gusty winds, but a watch is unlikely, owing to
limited/isolated coverage of severe thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION…Strong insolation across the region has resulted in
destabilization and reduction/removal of convective inhibition for
mixed-layer parcels. As a result, thunderstorms are developing over
the Laramie Mountains, Black Hills, and along the surface pressure
trough near the Montana-North Dakota border. Given mesoanalysis
estimates of 30-40 knots of effective-layer bulk shear (with
relatively straight hodographs) and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
multicellular and brief, splitting supercell modes will be possible.
As a result, the strongest updrafts will initially pose a severe
hail threat along with gusty winds, especially given the deep,
well-mixed boundary layers across the region, with the severe threat
ending shortly after sunset.
In the wake of a shortwave passage earlier today, upper-level
ascent/support is neutral/negligible for more widespread
thunderstorm development. As a result, severe thunderstorm coverage
across the region is expected to be too low to warrant a severe
thunderstorm watch, but convective trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Jirak/Goss.. 08/03/2019
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BIS…UNR…CYS…BYZ…GGW…
LAT…LON 42400568 44130532 45800501 48680399 48780354 48760319
48730280 47810277 47020285 45040319 43680335 42750343
42230356 42220452 42220499 42400568