South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Southeastern South Dakota…northeastern
Nebraska…and far northwestern Iowa

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 092359Z – 100200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…A downstream WW may be needed across portions of the
discussion area by 01Z or so.

DISCUSSION…Surface-based storms in south-central South Dakota are
continuing to grow upscale while forward-propagating
east-southeastward. The presence of locally enhanced low-level
shear near a warm front bisecting the region from WNW-ESE will
assist in occasional rotation in a few cells along with continued
organization of the ongoing complex in the presence of moderate
buoyancy. These storms will pose a hail/wind and isolated tornado
risk through the evening, and with 290/30 storm motions, these
storms should reach the southeastern extent of WW 564 during the
0130-0230Z time frame. Before this time, local extensions of WW 564
or a new WW (likely Severe Thunderstorm) will be coordinated with
affected offices.

..Cook/Hart.. 08/09/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 43130020 43350013 43429994 43479948 43759913 44099872
44389820 44449770 44009663 42999602 42289612 41889691
41879792 42269925 42549994 42970018 43130020

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