South Dakota Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Southern SD…Northern NE

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 080413Z – 080545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Some hail threat, along with gusty winds, are possible
with storms along the SD/NE border region for the next several
hours. Severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…Weak warm advection appears mostly responsible for
recent elevated convection along the SD/NE border. This activity is
developing just north of a weak front that is sagging slowly south
across the central Plains. Forecast soundings across the central
Plains exhibit more than adequate cloud-layer shear for sustained
updrafts; however, forecast hail algorithm is not particularly
aggressive with with values generally on the order of 1″ or less.
Even so, hail likely accompanies more organized supercells. Will
continue to monitor this region but it remains unclear whether this
activity will achieve sustained severe levels warranting a severe
thunderstorm watch.

..Darrow/Hart.. 08/08/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 43560014 42829688 42059777 42700072 43180136 43560014

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.