Hart Ranch Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…northern High Plains

Concerning…Heavy snow

Valid 100407Z – 101000Z

SUMMARY…Heavy snow and winter mixed precipitation behind the cold
front will continue across the northern High Plains and slowly move
eastward overnight. Lightning is expected to continue with the snow
and winter mixed precipitation.

DISCUSSION…A large, strong upper-level trough continues to move
eastward out of the western CONUS and over the Plains tonight. An
associated surface low will continue to deepen and begin to move
northeast overnight across the Plains as a surface cold front slides
southward across the High Plains. Strong frontogenetic forcing,
steep lapse rates aloft, and MUCAPE of 200-750 J/kg will result in
heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour from northeast
Colorado into southwest North Dakota overnight. CG/IC lightning is
occurring across northeast Colorado, far southeast Wyoming, and far
western Nebraska associated with convective snowfall within MUCAPE
of 200-600 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Winter mixed precipitation
including sleet is expected near the freezing line, although the
primary threat will be heavy snow. Snow will eventually decrease
from southwest to northeast with heavy snow expected across the
Dakotas into tomorrow afternoon.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 10/10/2019

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 45770089 46200120 46510188 46650293 46340412 44530522
41850630 41380656 40670603 40440527 40390462 41140297
42080210 43660154 45770089

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