Hart Ranch Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Northeastern Wyoming…Black Hills vicinity

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 260015Z – 260215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Storms capable of large hail are likely this
evening/overnight. An upgrade to Slight Risk in the highlighted area
will be forthcoming in the 01Z Convective Outlook. A WW is also
being considered.

DISCUSSION…Storms have rapidly intensified in northeast Wyoming
early this evening. With subtle mid-level ascent approaching, this
activity is likely to continue. While buoyancy will generally be
weak, mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, strong effective shear, and
long hodographs will support a threat for large hail. Buoyancy will
increase to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE as storms enter southwest South
Dakota. Furthermore, a modest increase in the low-level jet across
western Nebraska into southwest will also support continued storm
activity this evening. A upgrade to Slight Risk for this area for
the 01Z Convective Outlook is forthcoming. A WW is also being
considered for this region.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2019

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…UNR…CYS…

LAT…LON 44160587 44800575 44960501 44630337 44280234 43560244
43120283 43080386 43410455 44160587

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