Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151300Z – 161200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the contiguous
U.S. through tonight.

…Southeast FL…
Isolated to scattered showers are expected to persist in the
offshore waters and adjacent coastal area through tonight. Weak
mid-level lapse rates as sampled by the 12Z Miami sounding and lack
of greater large-scale ascent should preclude the development of
deeper convection and thunderstorms.

…Central/southern LA vicinity…
Strengthening 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection will result in
convective showers developing overnight. Sufficient moistening may
occur for scant elevated buoyancy towards the end of the period.
However, the presence of a rather dry 600-500 mb layer beneath
relatively warm 400-mb temperatures /near the -20 C level/ suggests
that convection may remain too shallow and unlikely to yield charge
separation for lightning prior to 12Z Sunday.

..Grams.. 02/15/2020

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