Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151200Z – 161200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday.

…Southern Louisiana…

Dominant surface ridge is expected to remain influential along the
Gulf Coast through the day1 period. This feature will gradually
erode along the TX and LA Coasts late in the period as more
favorable low-level trajectories off the western Gulf Basin
encourage modified Gulf air mass to begin advancing north. Even so,
deep westerly flow across low-latitudes will not prove particularly
favorable for moisture to advance very far inland, at least during
the day1 period. Latest model guidance suggests elevated buoyancy
will begin to increase across the central Gulf Coast during the
latter half of the period as a warm front advances toward southern
LA. Forecast soundings suggest elevated convection is possible after
16/06z and warm advection should aid elevated convection late.
However, updrafts will likely remain too shallow to warrant more
than a few lightning flashes. While a thunderstorm can not be ruled
out across this region, thunder probabilities should remain less
than 10% Saturday.

..Darrow.. 02/15/2020

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