Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 142000Z – 151200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous U.S. today.

…20Z Outlook Update…
Attempts at deep convective development are ongoing across parts of
the southern Florida Peninsula, mainly supported by lift along a
shallow, southward advancing cold front, as well as inland advancing
sea breezes to its south. However, activity in general remains
suppressed by a lack of mid/upper support for lift and substantial
inhibition associated with a deep layer of relatively warm and dry
air at mid/upper-levels. While it might not be out of the question
that one or two cells could still briefly intensify and produce
lightning across the southern peninsula late this afternoon,
thunderstorm probabilities still seem to remain below 10 percent.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020/

…Discussion…
A progressive flow field aloft will persist across the U.S. through
the period, as one trough crosses the eastern third of the U.S., and
a second crosses the West and shifts into central portions of the
country later in the period.

At the surface, a cold front has moved off the Atlantic Coast, and
currently lingers only across Florida. The front will continue
shifting slowly southward across the Peninsula, as the parent upper
trough continues advancing toward — and eventually off — the
Atlantic Coast.

A band of frontal showers is observed by radar across central
Florida at this time, but a warm layer aloft — between 700mb and
500mb — appears likely to continue to suppress deeper convection.
As such, thunderstorms are not expected as the front progresses
southward across the Peninsula — nor elsewhere across the U.S.
through the period.

$$

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