Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 141630Z – 151200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous U.S. today.

…Discussion…
A progressive flow field aloft will persist across the U.S. through
the period, as one trough crosses the eastern third of the U.S., and
a second crosses the West and shifts into central portions of the
country later in the period.

At the surface, a cold front has moved off the Atlantic Coast, and
currently lingers only across Florida. The front will continue
shifting slowly southward across the Peninsula, as the parent upper
trough continues advancing toward — and eventually off — the
Atlantic Coast.

A band of frontal showers is observed by radar across central
Florida at this time, but a warm layer aloft — between 700mb and
500mb — appears likely to continue to suppress deeper convection.
As such, thunderstorms are not expected as the front progresses
southward across the Peninsula — nor elsewhere across the U.S.
through the period.

..Goss.. 02/14/2020

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