Valid 131630Z – 141200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC STATES…
Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast
Atlantic states through late afternoon.
…Southeast Atlantic states this afternoon…
A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated confluent flow regime
aloft will support expansion of a surface ridge across the MS/OH
Valleys, as a cold front progresses across the Southeast states. A
narrow convective band, with occasional embedded thunderstorms,
accompanies the cold front from the FL Panhandle to the Piedmont of
the Carolinas. Surface heating in cloud breaks in advance of the
front, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain in the mid-upper
60s through the afternoon, will contribute to some destabilization.
The convective band will likely be maintained through the afternoon,
though substantial intensification is not expected as a result of
poor midlevel lapse rates associated with the persistent midlevel
ridge near the Bahamas. Otherwise, low-midlevel flow and vertical
shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a threat for
isolated damaging gusts this afternoon with the stronger embedded
cells/bowing segments, prior to the convective band reaching the
Atlantic coast from GA to NC by late afternoon/evening.