Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 131300Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast
States through early evening.

…Southeast…
A thin convective line with sporadic embedded thunder will likely
accompany a cold front that progresses east towards the South
Atlantic Coast by evening. Despite ample boundary-layer moisture
characterized by 12-14 g/kg mean-mixing ratios and potential for
surface temperatures to reach 80-85 F along the South Atlantic
Coastal Plain, buoyancy will remain weak amid poor 700-500 mb lapse
rates. Observed and forecast soundings suggest relatively warm/dry
mid-levels will remain prevalent ahead of the cold front, with
minimal cooling coincident with the front. 50-70 kt 850-700 mb
southwesterlies, generally aligned with the front, may support
locally strong surface wind gusts within deeper convective elements.

..Grams/Mosier.. 02/13/2020

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