Valid 131200Z – 141200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS…
A few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across the
southeastern states today.
Thunderstorm chances will be relegated to the southeastern U.S.
ahead of a cold front where low-level moisture/60s F dewpoints will
support weak instability. Lift along the front will result in a
narrow line of showers and thunderstorms, moving east across
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. This
will occur beneath and parallel to strong southwest winds aloft
associated with the positive-tilt upper trough to the northwest.
Forecast soundings warm midlevel temperatures and dry air aloft will
be prevalent ahead of the cold front during the day, with minimal
cooling aloft coincident with the front. MLCAPE of a few hundred
J/kg along with southwesterly 850 mb winds of 50-60 kt suggest
fast-moving storms, possibly small waves along the line, capable of
strong to locally severe wind gusts through about 00Z when the line
approaches the East Coast.