Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 120100Z – 121200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated, mainly weak thunderstorms remain possible for a few hours
over parts of the Southeast. A more robust chance of thunderstorms
exists tonight over Texas.

…Discussion…
Weak convection along a cold front, currently from southeast AL
across central GA and across the Carolinas, has shown signs of
weakening. 00Z soundings from the region indicate poor lapse rates
aloft, and little instability, though shear is strong. Given height
rises tonight and lack of destabilization, severe weather is not
expected.

To the west, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will advance
elevated moisture northward across TX and into the Sabine Valley, in
a warm advection regime ahead of an amplifying upper trough over the
southern High Plains. Forecast soundings reveal elevated instability
sufficient for storms due to cool temperatures aloft, but little if
any hail threat is expected.

..Jewell.. 02/12/2020

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