Valid 111200Z – 121200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms associated with marginally
severe wind gusts are possible today from Alabama northeastward
toward the Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
West to southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
Southeast today as a cold front advances southeastward across the
Gulf Coast States and Carolinas. The front is expected to reach
south-central Alabama, north-central Georgia and the western
Carolinas by mid to late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the lower
to mid 60s F and temperatures near 80 F will result in weak
destabilization along and to the south of the front. As low-level
convergence increases along the front during the afternoon,
scattered thunderstorms will develop and move eastward across the
region. The instability combined with strong deep-layer shear will
be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicell
line segments may have potential for isolated damaging wind gusts.
There also could be an outside chance for a supercell and brief
tornado. At this point, a marginal risk area will be maintained with
no upgrade mainly due to instability concerns.