Valid 101630Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL MS…
Severe thunderstorm winds, isolated hail and a tornado or two will
be possible today, mainly from east Texas and northern Louisiana
into central Mississippi.
…TX to LA/MS today…
A slow-moving front from TX to the lower MS Valley will provide the
primary focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development today.
Moist, moderately unstable (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) profiles are
present this morning from south TX to LA, where midlevel lapse rates
greater than 7.5 C/km overlie boundary-layer dewpoints of 67-70 F.
Vertical shear in this same corridor is sufficient for supercells,
with the stronger low-level shear and more favorable environment for
surface-based storms from east TX to west central MS.
Overall, the pattern will not change much through tonight. An
initial shortwave trough is ejecting east-northeastward over the
middle Rio Grande Valley toward central TX, and this ejecting speed
max will help maintain a weak surface wave on the front in the
vicinity of northwest LA. Training convection is expected along
the surface front from LA into MS today, where ongoing convection
will help reinforce the boundary. The stronger embedded
storms/supercells will pose a threat for damaging winds/large hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west toward central TX, the
convection will be largely elevated on the immediate cool side of
the front, where the strongest storms could produce isolated large
…Southwest NM and vicinity this afternoon/evening…
Modest low-level moistening and surface heating is expected in the
vicinity of southwest NM, to the east of the midlevel low
approaching northern Baja. Lapse rates and vertical shear will
become sufficient for organized/strong storms, though the degree of
buoyancy is still in question. Will continue to monitor this area
for low hail/wind probabilities later this afternoon, assuming
evidence of sufficient destabilization.