Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 101200Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…

…SUMMARY…
Severe storms will be possible today from the southern Plains
east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast States. The greatest
severe threat will be in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley where
wind damage and a couple tornadoes may occur.

…Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast
States…
West to southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across much
of the central and eastern U.S. Several subtle pertabations are
forecast to move east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast States. At
the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Texas
Coast Plains, Arklatex and Tennessee Valley. The front is expected
to slow down, becoming quasi-stationary across northern Louisiana
and north-central Mississippi. A large area of precipitation will be
ongoing along much of the front this morning. South of this band of
precipitation, a moist airmass will be in place with surface
dewpoints gradually increasing into the mid 60s F. In response, weak
to moderate instability should develop by mid to late afternoon.
Thunderstorms that form along the southern edge of the band of
precipitation will have access to this moist airmass. The
instability combined with strong deep-layer shear will create
conditions favorable for severe storms.

Forecast soundings in northern Louisiana for 00Z/Tuesday have 0-3 km
storm relative helicities in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 suggesting a
tornado threat will exist with supercells that develop. The tornado
threat is forecast to be greatest during the early to mid evening as
a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet strengthens across the lower Mississippi
Valley. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and/or
short line segments. The threat is expected to persist through much
of the evening. A hail and isolated wind damage threat will also be
possible with cells that form along the front across parts of
south-central and southeast Texas but weaker instability should keep
the severe threat marginal there.

..Broyles/Bentley.. 02/10/2020

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.