Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 100100Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX…

…SUMMARY…
A marginal severe threat is possible across parts of the southern
Plains and Arklatex. Hail and a few strong wind gusts could occur
this evening.

…Southern Plains/Arklatex…
The latest water vapor imagery shows west to southwest mid-level
flow over the south-central U.S. A subtle perturbation appears to be
present in the flow over the Arkaltex where scattered thunderstorms
have developed. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward
through the southern Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture located ahead of the front across the eastern half of
Texas. The RAP is showing an axis of moderate instability in
east-central Texas along the I-35 corridor where MLCAPE values are
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development could continue to take place along the northern edge of
the stronger instability from near Dallas/Fort Worth eastward to
near Texarkana this evening. Although the storms should become
increasingly elevated as the boundary layer cools, effective shear
of 35 to 40 kt and mid-level lapse rates near 7.0 C/km may be enough
for a marginal hail threat. An isolated strong wind gust will also
be possible, mainly before midnight.

..Broyles.. 02/10/2020

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.