Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 091200Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
A marginal severe threat with hail and isolated strong wind gusts
will be possible across parts of the southern Plains this afternoon
and evening.

…Southern Plains…
West to southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across much
of the southern and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is
forecast to move east-northeastward across the southern Plains this
afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward into
central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are forecast to increase into the lower to mid 60s which
should result in low-end moderate instability late this afternoon.
Increasing instability and low-level convergence just ahead of the
front should result in isolated convective initiation. A few
thunderstorms are expected to develop from west of Dallas/Fort Worth
southward into the western Texas Hill Country and move eastward to
the I-35 corridor by early evening. Forecast soundings early this
evening along the I-35 corridor show MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with
0-6 Km shear near 40 kt. This should support a marginal hail threat.
A few strong wind gusts will also be possible. The magnitude of the
threat should be determined by the timing of initiation. If cells
develop later, the threat could be minimized.

..Broyles/Karstens.. 02/09/2020

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