Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081630Z – 091200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorm areas are not expected through tonight.

…Synopsis…
The large-scale pattern of an eastern trough and western ridge is
beginning to change, with pronounced height falls expected over the
west, and gradual height rises tonight into Sunday across the east.
Within the broader flow regime, an initial shortwave trough will
move southeastward over the northern Rockies to NE/SD by tonight,
while a trough deepens over the northern Great Basin. Steep lapse
rates and cool temperature profiles will accompany the northern
Rockies trough, such that isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled
out this afternoon across WY. However, buoyancy will be quite
limited and the threat for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant
an outlook area. Otherwise, low-level moisture return to south TX
will commence, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s spreading
into the Rio Grande Valley of south TX. However, this moistening
boundary layer is likely to remain capped through the period.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 02/08/2020

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