Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 070100Z – 071200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a tornado or two
will continue to move eastward across parts of central to north
Florida, Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas this evening into
tonight.

…Florida/Southeast Georgia/Eastern Carolinas…
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough in the
Arklatex. A powerful mid-level jet is evident across the northern
Gulf of Mexico with the exit region of the jet in the Tennessee
Valley. At the surface, a cold front is located from the southern
Appalachians south-southeastward to the Florida Panhandle.
Widespread rainfall is located to the east of the front with
thunderstorms located along the eastern edge of this band of
rainfall from northern Florida to eastern North Carolina. The RAP is
analyzing moderate instability in northern Florida and southeast
Georgia where a continued severe threat is expected this evening.
The instability combined with very strong deep-layer shear will help
maintain a severe threat along the better organized parts of a
squall-line. Further north, a second pocket of instability is
located in eastern North Carolina. A threat for isolated wind damage
and marginal tornado threat will exist in this area this evening.

Further to the south across north-central Florida, the RAP is
analyzing moderate instability with SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range. This is evident on the Jacksonville 00Z sounding which also
has 0-6 km shear of 80-85 kt and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.0 C/km.
This should support a wind damage threat this evening and overnight.
0-3 km storm relative helicity of 350 m2/s2 should also support an
isolated tornado threat. The threat should continue into the
overnight period as the squall-line moves across north-central
Florida.

..Broyles.. 02/07/2020

$$

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