Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 062000Z – 071200Z


Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes
will continue to move eastward across parts of north Florida,
Georgia, and the Carolinas through tonight.

…20Z Update…
Storms have generally begun to consolidate this afternoon along/just
ahead of a cold front extending from the FL Panhandle into GA and
the Carolinas. Very strong flow in low to mid-levels is being
estimated across the warm sector per VWPs from various area radars,
with many locations showing 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg should also continue to support storm intensity. Given
the strong flow and related 50-65 kt of effective bulk shear
remaining largely parallel to the cold font, current expectations
are for a linear mode/squall line to dominate. Damaging winds should
be the main threat from north FL across GA and the Carolinas through
this evening. Isolated tornadoes will also remain possible with
transient circulations mostly embedded within the line. For more
information on the near-term severe threat across this region, see
Mesoscale Discussion 94.

Severe probabilities have been removed behind the cold front, while
the Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly northward into parts of
northeastern NC ahead of a small but well-organized bow moving into
a strongly sheared and slightly more unstable airmass with eastward
extent. An isolated damaging wind threat may persist across much of
the central/southern FL Peninsula through the evening and overnight
as the front moves southeastward across this region.

..Gleason.. 02/06/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020/

An active convective day is forecast for the southeast states today.
Thunderstorms are currently ongoing along a cold front extending
from the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into northern GA. Then a
wedge front extends northeastward across the western Carolinas. The
air mass in the warm sector is relatively moist and unstable over
much of GA/SC/NC with dewpoints in the 60s and the chance for
pockets of afternoon heating. This should maintain the thunderstorm
activity along the front, and foster more isolated convection to
form in the free warm sector. The result will be multiple
lines/clusters of intense convection. Vertical shear is quite
strong throughout the warm sector, promoting fast-moving bowing
storm structures and a few supercells. Relatively widespread
damaging winds will be the primary risk today, although a few
tornadoes are also expected.


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