Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061630Z – 071200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…NORTHERN FLORIDA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA…MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA…AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes
are expected to spread across parts of Georgia, north Florida, and
the Carolinas today.

An active convective day is forecast for the southeast states today.
Thunderstorms are currently ongoing along a cold front extending
from the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into northern GA. Then a
wedge front extends northeastward across the western Carolinas. The
air mass in the warm sector is relatively moist and unstable over
much of GA/SC/NC with dewpoints in the 60s and the chance for
pockets of afternoon heating. This should maintain the thunderstorm
activity along the front, and foster more isolated convection to
form in the free warm sector. The result will be multiple
lines/clusters of intense convection. Vertical shear is quite
strong throughout the warm sector, promoting fast-moving bowing
storm structures and a few supercells. Relatively widespread
damaging winds will be the primary risk today, although a few
tornadoes are also expected.

..Hart/Wendt.. 02/06/2020

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