Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 060100Z – 061200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorm threat should continue tonight across portions
of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A few tornadoes
remain possible along with damaging wind gusts and some hail.

…01z Update…

Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a secondary corridor of
ascent spreading across northeast Mexico into south-central TX. This
zone of forcing will spread into the lower Sabine River Valley later
this evening where renewed convection is expected across southwest
LA. Some of this activity will be elevated within a post frontal
environment and could produce hail. Of more concern downstream,
warm-sector supercells are expected to develop across southeast LA
then spread northeast into portions of southern MS/AL and the FL
Panhandle. 00z sounding at LIX exhibited a very moist profile but
with some capping at 1km. While the primary surface low will advance
into northern AL late this evening, the most buoyant air mass will
reside near the Gulf Coast and this is where the next corridor of
robust convection is expected to ultimately evolve ahead of the main
cold front. Even so, scattered severe thunderstorms will continue
farther inland this evening, north of I-20, despite a weaker
instability environment.

..Darrow.. 02/06/2020

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