Valid 050100Z – 051200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL TX…NORTHERN LA…SOUTHWEST AR…AND NORTHWEST
Marginal severe-thunderstorm potential exists through this evening
across the Arklatex and Mid-South regions.
Recent surface analysis places a weak low just southwest of MEM and
another low farther northeast near LEX. A cold front extends between
these two lows and continues southwestward to south of AUS. Some
deeper convective cores have been noted just north of the front in
southern AR and along the front in northwest LA and adjacent
east-central TX. Air mass ahead of the front is largely
characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s and dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints exist
ahead of the front in TX.
Warm temperatures aloft and the absence of large-scale forcing for
ascent are expected to continue limiting updraft depth and
persistence, which will temper the overall severe potential. Even
so, given the strong vertical shear, low potential for an isolated
damaging wind gust exists.