Valid 042000Z – 051200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TN…
Marginal severe-thunderstorm potential exists through this evening
across the Arklatex and Mid-South regions.
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area extending from
the ArkLaTex region northeastward to western/middle TN. Widespread,
persistent cloud cover and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected
to greatly limit surface-based instability through this evening.
Still, given the strong shear present, a couple of locally damaging
wind gusts may occur with any sustained storms that can form along a
surface front extending across these regions.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2020/
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending across central
TX, eastern OK, and western AR – then east-northeastward into the MO
bootheel and KY. The front will continue to sag southward today
into the Arklatex region and the TN valley. Low-level moisture
continues to increase to the south of the boundary with dewpoints
rising into the low/mid 60s. A compact low-level jet max over parts
of AR/MS/TN will focus convergence/lift and the highest potential
for a few strong storms later today. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest
that one or two clusters of storms will attain sufficient
organization along this narrow frontal corridor to pose a transient
risk of gusty winds or perhaps a tornado. The period of risk
appears to focus from 19-03z.