Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 041630Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE….

…SUMMARY…
Marginal severe-thunderstorm potential exists today into this
evening in the Arklatex and Mid-South regions.

Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending across central
TX, eastern OK, and western AR – then east-northeastward into the MO
bootheel and KY. The front will continue to sag southward today
into the Arklatex region and the TN valley. Low-level moisture
continues to increase to the south of the boundary with dewpoints
rising into the low/mid 60s. A compact low-level jet max over parts
of AR/MS/TN will focus convergence/lift and the highest potential
for a few strong storms later today. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest
that one or two clusters of storms will attain sufficient
organization along this narrow frontal corridor to pose a transient
risk of gusty winds or perhaps a tornado. The period of risk
appears to focus from 19-03z.

..Hart/Wendt.. 02/04/2020

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