Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 040100Z – 041200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight
mainly across parts of Texas, with more sparse coverage from
southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas.

…Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Arkansas…

Partially modified Gulf air with dewpoints in the low 60s F have
returned through eastern TX. Meanwhile mid-level lapse rates are
gradually steepening as temperatures aloft cool with time. Water
vapor imagery shows a deamplifying shortwave trough near the Big
Bend area of southwest TX moving northeast. Forcing for ascent with
this feature will begin to interact with the moist corridor across
central through east TX. The unstable layer in this region with
MUCAPE increasing to 300-600 J/kg should become sufficient for a few
elevated thunderstorms tonight, especially across TX where greater
instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will exist.

..Dial.. 02/04/2020

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