Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 032000Z – 041200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight
from portions of southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley.

…20Z Update…
Satellite imagery continues to show a well-defined shortwave trough
over central Mexico, embedded within a larger scale upper trough
covering much of the western and central CONUS. This shortwave
trough is still expected to eject across the gradually moistening
air mass over the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Showers
will continue to increase in coverage as this wave lifts
northeastward. Instability will be limited but a few embedded
thunderstorms are also possible, particularly across the Arklatex
region later tonight into tomorrow morning.

..Mosier.. 02/03/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2020/

Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough digging over the
western US, while a potent shortwave trough lifts northeastward
across Mexico toward TX. Increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
lead shortwave trough will overspread parts of TX/OK/AR through
tonight, with scattered showers and a few clusters of thunderstorms
developing across the region. 12z CAM guidance is in strong
agreement that, while a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates
will affect parts of TX this afternoon/evening, convective updrafts
will struggle to attain much intensity or organization. A strong
storm cannot be completely ruled out. But based on new guidance,
the odds of occurrence and areal coverage of threat appears
sufficiently low to warrant less-than-5% severe probabilities.


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